Gold’s Seasonality is in Play

As we enter September, it's important to note that this month has historically been challenging for precious metals. Since 2009, gold has typically dropped by 2.4%, silver by 3.8%, platinum by 3.7%, and palladium by 0.4%. This trend is often linked to broader market factors, such as increased volatility and weaker U.S. stock performance during September.

Despite gold's recent 7.2% surge for the quarter, historical patterns suggest caution. September’s market behavior could bring downward pressure on gold and silver, so a patient and strategic approach is advised. Buying on dips rather than chasing rallies might be more prudent, especially with the potential for market turbulence due to seasonality.

In July, gold ETFs saw net inflows across North America, Asia, and Europe, totaling 48.5 tonnes (USD $3.7 billion). However, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by about 1% last week, putting some pressure on gold and silver.

This week, the U.S. is releasing several key employment reports ahead of the crucial September Federal Reserve meeting. These include data on job openings, private sector employment, and initial jobless claims, culminating in the August Jobs Report on Friday, which will be pivotal ahead of the Fed’s decision.

Sources: MKS Pamp, Bloomberg

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