They Wouldn’t Really Go Nuclear, Would They?

In 2014, the US funded a coup d’état in Ukraine, ejecting the democratically-elected president and installing an American puppet. The new regime then set about attacking the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, which were predominantly Russian. Russia did not intervene, even though the US was messing in Russia’s “back yard.” It did, however, draw some “red lines,” warning Kiev that if they tried to take Crimea, join NATO, or become a nuclear state, Russia would invade.

In February 2022, Ukrainian puppet President Zelensky announced at the Munich Security Conference that Ukraine would go nuclear. That was the trigger that caused Russia to invade Ukraine, days later. The US declared outrage and sought to involve NATO in retaliation. The American media was filled with angry reports of the “unprovoked invasion,” stating that Russia’s goal was to seize all of Europe.

Since that time, the US media have maintained a constant barrage of propaganda regarding the war. The theme is always the same: The Russians are a murderous army, killing civilians, bombing hospitals and schools. But they are also incompetent, poorly led, their troops riddled with deserters, losing battle after battle, and experiencing far more casualties than Ukraine.

And yet, even though the Russians are claimed every day on the news to be losing badly, somehow, they have continued to advance. Kiev has been continually desperate for more from NATO in order to survive, and the US and other countries never seem to be offering enough materiel, advisors and funding for Ukraine to win.

Eventually, rumours began to leak out of Ukraine: Their casualties are eight to Russia’s one. The seasoned Ukrainian troops have been decimated. Kiev is barely surviving with green conscripts, outside contractors and depleting resources. Meanwhile, Russia has built up a force of over 500,000 fresh troops that are well-trained and well-armed with substantial supply lines. A winter campaign is under way that’s expected to make short work of the collapsing the Ukrainian defense.

The US has done all it can to appeal to the thirty-nation NATO, but the NATO countries, for the most part, are staying as far away from the fight as possible, not even wanting to provide materiel. 

At the beginning of the war, Joe Biden stated, "The idea that we’re going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews, just understand … that’s called ‘World War III.’"

Yet, in January 2023, he announced that the US and Germany would send 45 tanks to Ukraine. It might as well be sending 45 school children with pop guns, as they’d last nearly as long on the field of battle as 45 tanks.

Not only is the US running out of options, but the American people are beginning to realise that they’ve been lied to, and while inflation is raging in the US, the US government is pouring billions into Ukraine. All is not well on the home front.

US leaders have begun to suggest that a “limited nuclear war” might be the one remaining option. This suggests that if the US were to fire a few nuclear missiles, it would scare Russia into throwing in the towel.

The trouble is, Russia has the largest number and most advanced nuclear weapons on the planet. The chances of it not retaliating to “limited” nukes are nil. Instead, they’re likely to unleash the full force of their nuclear armaments. 

The media has said that the present situation is “unprecedented.” But, in fact, this has happened before.

In 1962, it was the Soviets that had the temerity to move into America’s “back yard,” sending missiles to Cuba. The US was as justifiably outraged then as Russia is now.

At that time, President Kennedy called the Joint Chiefs together to advise him. Today, that meeting has been largely forgotten, but it’s important to recall that the joint chiefs unanimously said, in essence, “Press the button immediately. Don’t wait another day.”   

Mister Kennedy was alone in the hope that nuclear Armageddon could be avoided. With no other option open to him, he called Soviet Leader Nikita Khrushchev and asked him to call back the ships that carried the missiles. Mister Khrushchev advised him that his own generals were telling him, too, to push the button immediately.

The two men ignored their respective generals and worked out an agreement in which both sides would de-escalate. Armageddon was avoided by two sane men.

But here we are again, possibly on the brink of Armageddon. All that’s required is for one side to push the button. The missile systems of the other would then respond.

But would anyone actually push the button?

Well, Mister Putin, as formidable as he is, is a pragmatic man and may well respond as well or better than Mister Khrushchev. But the man in the White House is no John Kennedy; he’s a cardboard cutout of a leader. The real decisions in Washington are being made by the Deep State… and it’s running out of options.

Russia holds virtually all the cards: Its economy is expanding. The US sanctions have caused two-thirds of the world to seek new treaties with Russia and China. The new agreement between China and Saudi Arabia will effectively end the petro dollar. And the US is not only broke, but in debt beyond the ability to even pay the interest. 

The last thing the Deep State wants is a loss of face, leading to a loss of power. And their last hope may well be to bluff that they will go nuclear.

So, if this were to happen, how would it play out?

Well, based upon past performance, the most likely scenario would be that the US would fire a low-yield (perhaps 0.3 kiloton) B61 missile at, say Kiev, and claim that it was a Russian missile, then call on all of NATO to join the fight against Russia.

The danger of this is that the pre-programmed missile systems in both the US and Russia would take over, carpeting the US, Europe and Western Russia with nukes. The volleys would be brief, lasting only a few hours, but their total volume would be sufficient enough to obliterate those countries, as seen in the 2017 Princeton nuclear simulation: https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a

The casualties are estimated at 91.5 million. Deaths from fallout would significantly increase this number, as fallout would cover much of the Northern Hemisphere, moved by trade winds and ocean currents. (As the Southern Hemisphere has a separate weather system and virtually all targets would be in the north, the Southern Hemisphere would fare far better than the north.) Beyond this damage, a nuclear winter would ensue, lasting months and perhaps years.

In reading the above, the natural reaction for each of us, as sane people, would be to say, “That can’t possibly happen. Nobody would be that crazy.”

Yet, as is so often the case, many of the world’s political and military leaders are certifiably sociopathic. And, as history shows, when sociopaths vie for power, reason tends to go out the window.

In looking back to 1962 once again, it’s instructive to note that, when Fidel Castro was advised by Mister Khrushchev that de-escalation had been agreed upon, he was furious. He is reported to have advised Mister Khrushchev that he would have preferred Armageddon for his country rather than to have been left out of the negotiations. Such is the nature of sociopaths.

It should be emphasised that nuclear war is by no means a certainty… but we are dangerously close.